sábado, 7 de febrero de 2009

CRÌSIS ECONÒMICA MUNDIAL.

CRISIS FINANCIERA Y CRISIS ECONOMICA GLOBAL

Resulta un eufemismo seguir refiriéndose a la situación económica como una crisis financiera y no como lo que definitivamente es: una profunda crisis económica global, sólo comparable en amplitud y profundidad a la crisis mundial de 1930.

La analogía no es sólo un campo fértil para la reflexión y producción académica como lo demuestra el masivo retorno de los economistas e intelectuales, en general, a la lectura y discusión de las ideas y propuestas de uno de los más grandes economistas de todos los tiempos: John Maynard Keynes. Existen, además, un conjunto de elementos que hacen de dicha comparación un instrumento necesario para entender la crisis y para la formulación de políticas para enfrentarla. Se pueden identificar, al menos 4 características similares en ambas situaciones:
- Una crisis que comienza estrictamente en el ámbito financiero se expande a la economía real y se transforma en una recesión económica.
- Su impacto no se focaliza en uno o dos países sino que adquiere connotaciones de carácter mundial-
- Se manifiesta en el campo de las ideas o más bien de las ideologías, como el fracaso del fundamentalismo económico de libre mercado, que en ese tiempo se expresaba en la tradición neoclásica y hoy en día en el neoliberalismo.
- Se reasume y reivindica la necesidad de intervención del Estado en la economía.

¿Se han superado las causas originales de la crisis financiera? La masiva intervención financiera de los gobiernos en el mundo, particularmente EE UU, han creado la imagen de que resuelto el problema de liquidez financiera, la economía mundial volvería en un determinado tiempo, después de una seria contracción productiva, a retomar el camino de la normalidad, por lo tanto el problema de fondo sería simplemente de tiempo. Sin embargo existen claros indicios de que las causas de fondo de las fallas en el mercado financiero, esto es la desregulación del capital financiero especulativo, no han sido enfrentadas en toda su profundidad. Por otro lado, lo más serio, que el efecto recesivo en el ámbito productivo ha adquirido independencia de los factores estrictamente financieros y está golpeando profundamente la estructura de costos de las empresas y obviamente de las principales economías del mundo. De allí que la reducción de las tasas de interés, a niveles inéditos como la de EE.UU. o Inglaterra, no están logrando frenar, al menos en el corto plazo, la tendencia recesiva.

Situada en el ámbito productivo la crisis parece no haber madurado suficientemente para alcanzar un nivel de estabilidad y desde allí remontar. Tal cual sucedió en 1930 el impacto económico recesivo se manifestó con rezago respecto de la crisis financiera, con lo cual es posible predecir un fenómeno similar con la actual crisis. Como dice un grupo de expertos del FMI “que cuando se está frente a fenómenos como el actual, con caídas del crédito, las acciones y el precio de las viviendas por el suelo, las contracciones económicas son más largas y profundas”. Contradiciendo el pensamiento neo-liberal, la crisis no parece ser transitoria ni breve sino larga y profunda.

En nuestro país y en nuestra región, el primer impacto recesivo, ha sido la caída en el precio de las materias primas, particularmente el cobre, y la contracción financiera, pero aún es de esperar el efecto negativo de la reducción de la demanda a nivel mundial que se focalizará principalmente en el sector productivo industrial. Es de esperar que en el caso del cobre, China que consume el 22% del cobre mundial, pueda mantener el nivel de crecimiento del 8% planificado y por tanto detener y remontar la caída en el precio.
Frente a esta situación se requiere mayor profundidad en el análisis y particularmente mayor acuciosidad y pertinencia en las medidas posibles a implementar. No parecen serias las recomendaciones, tipo recetario farmacéutico o decálogo de conductas obvias, de lo que debieran hacer los individuos o las empresas frente a la crisis. El problema central es primero conocer la profundidad de la crisis y luego tener la capacidad para enfrentarla de manera colectiva y solidaria.

Si de recomendaciones se trata, estas se refieren principalmente a sectores productivos e institucionales antes que las personales. Un primer nivel de responsabilidad les cabe a las grandes empresas, en el sentido de enfrentar la crisis sin reducir sus compromisos financieros, sin generar cesantía, sobre la base de acuerdos solidarios con sus trabajadores y los proveedores. La contraparte de la política del win/win es asumir colectiva y proporcionalmente las dificultades.

La responsabilidad mayor, sin duda, le corresponde al Estado, tanto en la oportunidad, la dimensión y particularmente la pertinencia de su intervención. Las medidas adoptadas por el Gobierno parecen cumplir satisfactoriamente las dos primeras condiciones, sin embargo, la pertinencia, esto es, cómo, donde y cuando intervenir levantan interrogantes legítimas respecto de su eficacia.

a.- En primer lugar, los recursos financieros destinados a mantener liquidez, se enfrentan a las políticas de un sistema financiero, más preocupado de securitizar sus operaciones (disminuir el riesgo) antes que asegurar que los recursos fluyan de manera expedita a los sectores que lo requieren. Ello se expresa en reforzar barreras de entrada y privilegiar sus propios productos, amén que la tasa de interés sigue siendo alta y por tanto insuficientemente expansiva. Lo contradictorio es que la política fiscal es contracíclica y el sistema financiero pro-ciclico, con lo cual, en la actual situación agudiza la crisis.

b.- En segundo lugar, las inversiones del sector público, corresponden a las mismas que ya estaban programadas, con lo cual su impacto global, positivo sin duda, no se focaliza en los sectores afectados más directamente por la crisis, esto es el sector productivo, particularmente minero e industrial.

c.- En tercer lugar, las medidas destinadas a frenar el desempleo tienen la misma dificultad, que no focalizan en los sectores más críticos y que utiliza instrumentos que pueden no ser suficientemente adecuados a la naturaleza de la crisis. A modo de ejemplo, es interesante destacar el objetivo que se ha planteado Inglaterra respecto de este tema “garantizar que las personas que pierdan sus empleos puedan recuperarlos antes de convertirse en desocupados de largo plazo”


Alejandro Bell Jara
Economista M.Phil
Iquique, 14 enero de 2009

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